How Risk Works
How EdgeFinder turns a prediction into a recommended stake, and how you stay in control of it.
Every stake shown is guidance, not an instruction. You choose whether and how much to bet.
For every match, the model estimates a probability for each outcome and compares it against the odds on offer. When the model's estimate is meaningfully more favorable than the market's implied probability, that difference is the "edge" behind a recommendation.
The base recommended stake is calculated with a Kelly-based formula, which sizes bets in proportion to the estimated edge and odds - larger, more confident edges get larger stakes, automatically, without you having to size anything by hand.
The Kelly stake is a fraction, applied to the bankroll figure you set in Onboarding or Settings. A larger bankroll means larger absolute stakes at the same fraction - only enter an amount you can genuinely afford to lose in full.
Stakes half of the AI-recommended size on every bet. Slower growth, smaller swings. Stakes exactly the AI-recommended size - the model's own calibration. Stakes 1.5x the AI-recommended size. Faster potential growth, bigger swings.
Changing your risk profile only rescales the stake - it never changes what the AI itself predicts or recommends.
Recommended stakes are reduced automatically when model confidence drops or when live performance drifts from backtested expectations - protecting your bankroll first, without any action needed from you.
None of this removes the risk of betting. Stake sizing manages how much of your bankroll is exposed to any one bet - it does not, and cannot, guarantee that bet wins. Every recommendation can lose. See Responsible Gaming for the full risk warning.